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QQQ Weekly Outlook: 702 Support vs 725 Breakout | Aug. 31–Sep. 4QQQ Weekly Outlook: 702 Support vs 725 Breakout | Aug. 31–Sep. 4 QQQ finished last week at 716.43 after once again proving that the area between roughly 702 and 725 is the market’s current decision zone. Last week gave us an unusually clean test of that framework. QQQ reached 702.70 on Monday, holding just above our lower support boundary, then rallied to 724.13 on Friday before failing just beneath the 725.39 breakout level. Neither side of the range confirmed, and price finished the week back near the middle. The important change entering this week is that the broader structure has improved. The current chart shows the Daily, Weekly and Monthly trends all bullish , bullish market structure, price above the 20 EMA, and buyers controlling VWAP. The market-state model is also back to Bull Directional . But that does not automatically make 716 an attractive bullish entry location. Momentum remains neutral, price is mid-range, and QQQ is still below both the descending resistance structure and 725.39 R1 . The current signal plan therefore remains WAIT . Bullish scenario The first real test is 725.39 . A convincing breakout and acceptance above that level would clear the top of the current decision range and weaken the descending resistance structure. Above 725.39, the next upside references are 736.10 , then 745.74 . The larger confirmed Double Bottom measured-move reference remains near 766.02 . Neutral scenario If QQQ remains between 702.14 and 725.39 , the market is still inside the same broad range that controlled last week. In that environment, strength into resistance and weakness into support can continue to reverse without producing a durable directional move. The middle of the range remains the least informative location. Bearish scenario The first important downside level is now 702.14 . A test that holds and reclaims that area would continue to support the bullish higher-timeframe structure. A decisive loss of 702.14 would materially change the picture and expose 686.19 next. Beneath that, the major lower reference is 662.46 , close to the existing Double Top measured-move reference around 664.20 . So the setup entering the week is constructive, but conditional: Above 725.39 → bullish expansion becomes more credible. Between 702.14 and 725.39 → remain patient; the range still controls. Below 702.14 → downside risk increases materially. The strongest part of the chart right now is the higher-timeframe trend. The weakest part is location. Until QQQ reaches one of the edges of the range or produces a clean breakout, there is little reason to force a directional call from the middle. This week’s major catalysts are heavily concentrated around the labor market. Tuesday brings JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing at 10:00 ET. Wednesday brings ADP employment at 8:15 ET. Thursday includes jobless claims and revised productivity/costs at 8:30 ET plus ISM Services at 10:00 ET. Friday brings the August Employment Situation / nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 ET. Friday is especially important because the previous July employment report showed payrolls down 23,000 with unemployment at 4.1% , making the August report a potentially significant catalyst for rates and growth-sensitive technology shares. Bottom line: QQQ enters the week with bullish higher-timeframe structure, but still trapped beneath the same resistance that capped last week. 702 and 725 remain the levels that matter most. Let price tell us which side wins. Informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Iskill1
9
SPY: The After-Window Opened on an Oil Shock...On 21 August I published the CME September curve at 34.6% hike against 65.4% hold and flagged Warsh Friday as the reaction function reveal. He gave it. About twenty points of hike moved in the hour he spoke, and the curve kept going. Monday's pull reads September 66.1% hike against 33.9% hold, October 74.4% hike, December 89.0% hike, and ease 0.0% at all three. September was 57.0% on Friday and 41.4% a week ago, though it also read 67.0% on 31 July, so the front end has round-tripped a month rather than set a new extreme. The August employment situation lands Friday 4 September at 08:30 ET against a +58K consensus after July's −23K, on the last session Fed voters can speak before FOMC blackout starts at midnight. Watch payrolls and participation separately: the July print held the unemployment rate at 4.1% by falling participation, and a Temporary Protected Status revocation for about 350,000 people in late July can hold the rate down for the wrong reason again. Warsh named the gauge, the share of 199 disaggregated PCE components rising more than 3% over twelve months, currently at 54%. That is what any print from here reads against. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie
Is a pullback or correction about to hit?Hello Traders, Well according to cycles and other things we are entering the period of weakness. I also see another period of weakness around feb of 2027. I show some targets here... If we do a smaller pullback/dip here then the bigger pullback would be in Feb but it could also come now into October. We just had a solar then lunar eclipse. This has activated the Puetz crash window which means a pullback would start by tomorrow... Then we Have Venus Retrograde in October which is associate with a continuation of bearishness period. Lets see what happens!
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheUniverse618
2
SPY: Price Breaks Above Horizontal Consolidation, Eyes New ATH!The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) recently traded around $772, consolidating near its higher weekly ranges as Wall Street weighs ongoing corporate earnings, shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations, and broader macroeconomic factors. Markets have seen mixed sessions driven by tech sector evaluation and upcoming economic symposium focus. Technical Insight: SPY was confined inside a sideways formation, fluctuating on a momentum of support and resistance, for a couple of months now. Lately the ETF broke above the horizontal resistance zone, at $760. Price is making a back test, as we anticipate bullish continuation between, $756-$764. Key Point: A confirmed pullback around this zones, activates a buy position, aiming towards $790, as next potential high. Thanks for reading.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Blaisefxacademy
SPY Weekly Bearish Divergence at Highs — Protect CapitalAMEX:SPY weekly is printing bearish divergence into all-time-high territory. Price keeps making higher highs while RSI is making lower highs. Momentum is not confirming the last push. Volume on the latest weekly legs is also lighter than the prior advance. This is not a “short the open” signal. Divergence on the weekly is a risk-off warning. The uptrend is intact until structure breaks. Key levels: Near-term watch: failure to hold the rising trend / latest weekly lows - Support 1: 689.93 (prior breakout / previous highs zone) - Support 2: 606.58 - Support 3: 565.16 - Deeper: 490.64 Bias: cautious / defensive until weekly RSI reclaims strength or price loses the rising structure on volume. Protect the capital! Let the tape confirm!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Gutta_CEO_
SPY Chart In No-Mans LandAMEX:SPY I am optimistically bearish on the overall currently with everything coming through the tape/news. There really seems to be a qualm over hike/keep put/cut - even though no one is expecting a cut in interest rates. GDP increased by 1.5% but that is a lower number than the previous quarter print. We also saw PCE come in at a number that might raise some eyebrows in the Federal Reserve. All to say, it seems that the market is trying ton decide it's next move and I am genuinely leaning on the side of a breakdown below 762 quite frankly. it feels heavy, treasury yields are pushing higher, earnings season is over - now we just get lulled into a sense of contempt while the Fed deliberates for September. if we can get some momentum and break this range to the upside - great - but what is out there right now for me to even think that's a possibility other than markets can remain irrational longer than we can stay solvent... or something like that.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ItsJust_Kess
Semiconductors Setting Up Base As Macro Fears CoolTaking a close look at the RIGHT chart, we can see a classic inverse head and shoulders base forming. What makes this structure especially interesting is the nesting. Inside the broader right shoulder of the main pattern, price action has carved out a smaller secondary inverse head and shoulders. This type of pattern within a pattern often signals that buyers are stepping in early and absorbing selling pressure before the larger breakout unfolds. When the smaller structure resolves upward, it can provide the momentum needed to confirm the larger bottoming process. The Macro Picture: Why Are Markets Not Spooked?!?!?! On paper, the broader macro backdrop looks intimidating: 10 Yr Yield: TVC:TNX is sitting at levels much higher than during the regional banking stress of 2023. However, instead of panicking, equities are absorbing this move. The market views current yield strength as a reflection of solid economic momentum rather than a sudden systemic crunch. Japanese Yen: The Yen has handed back about half of its massive run. While the initial spike caused widespread turbulence, the current retracement shows that global currency repositioning is unfolding in an orderly way without forced liquidation cascades. Volatility Suppression: Despite elevated bond yields and currency swings, fear gauges are not ripping higher. Heavy option premium selling and persistent dip buying continue to place a floor under pullbacks, keeping markets remarkably stable. Key Takeaway While macro headlines seem heavy, the underlying price action tells a calmer story. The nested inverse head and shoulders pattern highlights steady accumulation in semiconductors, while the market reaction to high yields and currency moves points to strong resilience. Watch for the pattern neckline to clear to CONFIRM that the next upward leg is underway. What is your take on this semiconductor setup? Are we set for a breakout, or will macro pressure eventually weigh on equities? TGtg!
NASDAQ:SOXX
by ROW_Partners
# SPY Is Pinned at $770—Until It Isn’t | Aug. 31–Sept. 4 **Daily chart** SPY is still in an uptrend. I do not see a broken daily chart here. I see a market that pulled back from $779.49 and is now trying to settle around $770. The recent dip held well above the previous breakout near $755.72. That keeps the larger trend bullish. At the same time, buyers have not been able to push back through the high. Daily RSI is around 60. It is still on the bullish side, but momentum has cooled from the earlier run. I would not turn one pullback into a market-top prediction. I would also not chase while SPY is sitting under resistance. My daily levels: * $779.49 major resistance * $785 next breakout target * $771–$772 first resistance * $768–$770 current decision area * $755.72 major daily support * $730 secondary support * $717 larger trend support A daily close above $779.49 would put SPY back into price discovery. Losing $755.72 would be the first real damage to the current daily structure. **15-minute chart** Friday’s move was a trap for anyone chasing the morning strength. SPY ran to $775.30 and then sold off to $768.31. It spent the rest of the session moving sideways around $769. The late-day base stopped the selling, but buyers never recovered $770. Price is also under the short-term average and the descending intraday trend. For Monday, $770 is the first line I am watching. A quick move above it means very little. I want a 15-minute candle to close above $770–$770.50 and stay there. If that happens, the next levels are $772, $772.77, $774 and $775.30. On the downside, $768.31 and $768.05 are the Friday lows. A break below them could send SPY toward $766, $765 and possibly $760. **GEX map** The GEX map is centered almost perfectly around the current price. Overhead levels: * $770 high-volatility level * $772 first call level * $774 * $775 * $785 major open-interest level Downside levels: * $768 * $766 * $765 * $760 major put wall * $755 * $750 The current GEX state is mixed and leaning defensive, with puts making up about 60.3% of the positioning shown. This matters because price can move faster once one side of the range breaks. The $770 high-volatility line is likely to be the main pivot. Holding above it favors $772–$775. Staying below it keeps pressure on $768. The largest downside concentration is at $760. If $765 fails, I would expect $760 to start acting like a magnet. IVR is around 21 and implied volatility is still relatively low. SPY options are not carrying extreme premium, but 0DTE and 1DTE contracts can still lose value quickly if price stays stuck around $769–$770. **Day-trading plan** For calls, I want a 15-minute close above $770.50 and then a clean hold. My targets are $772, $774 and $775.30. If SPY breaks Friday’s high with volume, I would keep a small runner for $779.50. Another possible long is a flush under $768 followed by a quick recovery back above $769. I would wait for the reclaim instead of buying during the drop. For puts, I am watching for a rejection from $770–$772 followed by a break below $768. Targets would be $766, $765 and $760. The bearish setup is wrong if SPY gets back above $770.50 and holds. I will avoid trading inside the $769–$770 area. That is too close to the high-volatility pivot and could produce a lot of movement without going anywhere. **Long-term investment view** For long-term investing, SPY is different from an individual stock. I am not trying to find one perfect entry and put all the money in at once. My normal approach is regular buying, with extra cash reserved for larger pullbacks. The areas where I would consider increasing the position are: * $755–$760 * $730 * $717 A weekly close below $717 would break the larger trend shown on this chart. Until then, pullbacks remain part of an overall bullish structure. If SPY clears $779.49, the next levels are $785, $790 and $800. I would continue holding a long-term position through that move instead of selling everything because the market reached another high. For this week, $770 controls the short-term direction. Above it, SPY can work back toward $775 and $779. Below $768, the door opens toward $765 and $760. This is my chart plan for the week, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
NIFTY50.....Kiss to say good-bye? Hello Traders, today I show you the ETF „FLXI“ that has been designed to trade the NIFTY50. This ETF has broken the lower boundary of the red trendline I have drawn at the chart and pulled back to the underside of it. This probably can be the „kiss to say good-by“ and N50 is ready to collapse in the cominig sessions. Below the red candle from Monday 24th I have wrote the possible „BoS“ (Break of structure)! This is a first sign that the trend has reversed to the downside in this case. It pulled back for some days, and as long as NIFTY50 is not able to push above the level of €36.06 on a daily closing price the path is focused to the downside One member argued that a trinagle coould be underway. This is an important hint for another idea that can be possible. But to my view, a triangle is a pattern really difficult to count and is a rare pattern as well. But of course, the opportunity is given. Thanks for this view I haven't at my cards! So, if the bears take control for the coming sessions a break of the low on Monday 24th below €35.47 on a daily closing price the door is open for more weakness. I have announced my favored price targets but it is to early to judge.Of course, one target is around the area of €35.17 and €34.85! The bulls need to take controll above the area of € 36.06 ad take controll at the zone called „Equilibrium“ that shows a 50% retracement Fibo level! From this area on a retest of the upper red trendline @ the €37.- price area, depending on when and if it would be touched, is to favor. The NIFTY50 itself is not that clear at the structure as the ETF is! So that's why I have choosen this ETF! Let my know if all of you are able to illustrade this ETF? That's it today for you my friends. Have a great week..... Ruebennase Please ask or comment as appropriate. Trade on this analysis at your own risk
XETR:FLXI
by ruebennase
1
Lets get ready for next week! 8/30/26In this video We go over our support and resistance levels on the SPX and the Q's getting ready for next week. Are we going to do a full retrace of the wedge break out on the SPX? Can we hold the break out of the parallel on the Q's? lets wait and see. I personally think so long as the spx holds the wedge pattern were still in the clear despite us having bad news but for sure its hurting probabilities. lets wait for confirmation and a break down of the wedge pattern to know for sure if were going to go lower.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by JuvenalGomez
2
SPY Sunday Market Prep: Futures Lower, Geopolitical Risk Back inFutures are lower Sunday evening, and the biggest change since the original weekend map is not technical — it’s the macro backdrop. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are both modestly red, while oil has jumped more than 2% after renewed U.S.–Iran military action around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent is back around $90 and WTI around $85, which immediately brings inflation and rate expectations back into the conversation. That matters because the market was already digesting a more hawkish Fed after Jackson Hole. Warsh’s comments increased expectations for a possible September hike, and the 2-year Treasury yield moved sharply higher. So now we have: higher oil + higher geopolitical risk + a more hawkish Fed backdrop That combination is not ideal for high-duration growth and AI names. Why NVDA and other AI leaders may struggle NVDA’s earnings were strong enough to reaffirm the AI demand story, but the stock still showed how sensitive the group is to macro pressure. If Middle East tensions remain elevated and oil keeps climbing, yields could stay firm or move higher. That creates a tougher environment for names like: NVDA AVGO DELL other high-multiple AI / semiconductor stocks because higher yields increase the discount rate investors apply to future earnings. That does not mean NVDA suddenly becomes fundamentally weak. It means the macro environment can overpower good company-specific fundamentals, at least temporarily. SPY Map I would not redraw the scenarios yet. The original battlefield still works. 771 — first meaningful upside repair area 769 — Friday close / immediate decision PDL around 768 766 → 765 → 764 — lower AOA cluster What has changed is the weighting. 🟢 Green Green is still alive, but now requires more proof. If futures recover and SPY can reclaim 769 → 771, then buyers have absorbed the initial geopolitical shock. Above 771, the path toward: 773 → PDH → 776 reopens. If that happens while oil cools and yields stabilize, Green becomes much more credible. 🟡 Yellow Yellow is still my highest-weight scenario. SPY could easily spend the early part of the week rotating around: 766–771 while traders digest: Fed expectations oil Iran headlines labor data and major tech earnings. That would fit the original thesis of an early-week negotiation before a larger directional move later. 🔴 Red Red deserves more weight tonight. If SPY loses 768 / PDL and begins accepting below it, then: 766 → 765 → 764 becomes the immediate downside ladder. If 764 breaks cleanly and cannot be reclaimed, then the deeper Red path into the upper 750s becomes much more realistic. That would likely require continued geopolitical escalation, rising oil, rising yields, or a deterioration in the week’s labor data. My weighting now Before futures opened: Yellow > Green > Red After tonight’s news: Yellow > Red > Green Not because the bullish case is dead. Because the market now has another source of inflation and risk to price. The bigger question is not whether futures are red Sunday night. It is whether SPY can absorb the geopolitical shock and recover its Friday structure. For now I’m leaving the map exactly where it is. We’ll re-evaluate Monday morning once we have overnight price action, oil, yields, and any additional headlines.
AMEX:SPY
by heavydiligence
2
Market Breadth Momentum — See What the Indexes Won't Tell YouMost traders watch the S&P 500 or Nasdaq and assume they know what the market is doing. But the indexes can lie — a handful of mega-caps can drag SPY higher while the majority of stocks are rolling over. That's why breadth matters. Market Breadth Momentum tracks NYSE New Highs vs New Lows and turns that raw data into a momentum oscillator you can actually trade with. Instead of just counting highs and lows, it applies smoothing and momentum calculations to show you whether breadth is accelerating or decelerating — and that distinction is everything. Here's what it gives you: - A momentum oscillator that tells you when broad participation is expanding (bullish) or contracting (bearish) - Clear divergence signals — when the index is making new highs but breadth momentum is falling, that's your early warning - Works on any timeframe, but the daily is where it really shines for swing traders The power of this indicator is in catching the turns that price alone won't show you. A rally on declining breadth is living on borrowed time. A pullback with improving breadth is a buying opportunity most people miss because they're scared of the red candles. If you trade the broader market or need a filter to confirm your individual stock setups, this is one of the most useful tools you can add to your chart. Published on TradingView — built by Confluence Trading Tools.
AMEX:SPY
by ConfluenceTT
SPY - Back At The Floor With A Data Print On The ClockSPY - Back At The Floor With A Data Print On The Clock The S&P 500 ETF is opening soft near the low end of the two-week range that has held between roughly 765.71 and 771.58. This morning's dip under that floor is a pre-market print, not a settled read, so it does not count as a break yet. The daily picture still leans constructive, and the level that would actually change the posture is a confirmed close that holds, in either direction. There is also a scheduled risk on the clock: the ISM manufacturing report lands at 10:00 Eastern, which is a timing event to respect, not a direction to trade ahead of. Resistance: 771.58 (range top and trigger) Key resistance: 775.30, then 779.37 Current price: 763.23 Support: 765.52, then 762.57 Key support: 759.13 Structural: 753.22 Two paths from here: Reclaim and hold above 765.71 during the regular session and the range stays intact, with 771.58 back in view as the level that has rejected four times. Close the regular session below 765.71 and hold it, and the two-week range breaks down, opening 759.13 and then 753.22. The range has been the whole story for two weeks, and it takes a held close, not a morning wick, to end it. Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS Study, not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by virDeStatera
The strongest six-month trend has no momentum leftMost screens measure one thing and call it a signal. Run two and the interesting answers are where they disagree. Take a six-month trend reading and a one-month momentum reading across the US sectors this morning. Semiconductors are up 40.5% over six months. Strongest structure of any sector, by a distance. Over the last month they've done −0.2%. Nothing. So the best-looking trend on the board belongs to the thing that has stopped moving. Trend alone says buy it. Momentum alone says nothing is happening here. Together they say the move already went, and you're looking at it after the fact. Now the same thing upside down. Communication Services is up 4.3% on the month, better momentum than eight of the twelve sectors. And down 5.4% over six months. Momentum with a broken structure underneath it. Both fail. Both fail for opposite reasons. A screen measuring only one of the two would have told you to buy one of them. Three sectors cleared both readings this morning: technology, energy and healthcare. Three out of twelve. If ten cleared every week the readings wouldn't be doing anything. The thresholds on the chart are the ones I use. Six-month move above +5% counts as an intact trend, one-month above +2% counts as live momentum. Argue with the numbers if you like, they're on the chart so you can. Which of the two do you weight more heavily, and has that changed in the last year? Educational content. Not financial advice.
NASDAQ:SMHEducation
by RB_T
JUNIORBEESBased on the daily chart for Nippon India ETF Nifty Next 50 Junior BeES (JUNIORBEES), here is the technical breakdown and short-term levels: Trend & Structure Lower Boundary Test: The price is currently resting right on the lower boundary line of the ascending channel around 789.97 – 790.81. Pullback from Highs: Following a swing high near 823.97 (High label), the ETF has pulled back over recent daily sessions to retest the trendline support. Volume Profile: Volume levels remain moderate to low on this pullback, indicating a orderly correction rather than aggressive institutional selling. Key Technical Levels Immediate Resistance (Upside Target 1): 823.97 – 827.80 (Recent swing high resistance area, ~4.74% potential upside from channel support) Upper Channel Target (Upside Target 2): 845.00 – 855.00 (Upper yellow trendline projection) Immediate Support: 789.97 (Current lower channel trendline support level) Major Support (Downside Target): 762.00 (Prior horizontal base consolidation low from July; target if trendline breaks) Short-Term Scenarios Bullish Rebound (Primary Setup): Holding above 789.97 supports a bounce back toward 823.97 (+4.7%), with extended momentum targeting the upper channel boundary (~850.00). Bearish Breakdown (Risk Management): A daily close below 789.00 invalidates the current ascending channel, opening up downside risk toward the horizontal demand zone at 762.00 (~8.5% drop from the high). Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only, we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made. Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement HAPPY TRADING 👍
NSE:JUNIORBEES
by KP_77
$SPY & $SPX — Levels for Tuesday, September 1, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX — Levels and Scenarios for Tuesday, September 1, 2026 📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET) 10:00 AM | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Forecast: 55.2 | Previous: 55.6 10:00 AM | ISM Manufacturing Prices | Forecast: 70.5 | Previous: 71.1 10:00 AM | JOLTS Job Openings | Forecast: 7.33M | Previous: 7.36M ⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. 📌 #ISMManufacturing #ManufacturingPMI #ISMPrices #JOLTS #JobOpenings
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY Sept. 1: Negative GEX Below $770 SPY finished Monday at $766.77 and traded around $766.93 after hours. The session moved from $769.77 down to $764.72 before buyers recovered part of the decline. The larger trend is still bullish, but short-term momentum has weakened. Tuesday’s direction will depend on whether SPY can reclaim $770 or loses Monday’s low. Daily Timeframe SPY reached a recent high of $779.37 before pulling back into the mid-$760s. The current decline has not broken the larger uptrend, but buyers have not yet produced another daily breakout. Daily RSI is around 54.2 and below its signal line near 60. Momentum has cooled and is no longer supporting an aggressive bullish entry. The first daily resistance is around $770, followed by $775.93 and $779.37. A daily close above $780 would restart the larger breakout and open the path toward $790 and $800. The first important daily support is around $755. Below that, the next major support is near $729, followed by $717. 15-Minute Timeframe SPY began the session near $769.50 and remained under pressure throughout the morning. The decline reached $764.72 before buyers stepped in during the afternoon. Price recovered toward $768 and broke above the intraday falling channel, but the breakout did not continue. SPY finished near $767.50 and is now retesting the broken trendline. The 15-minute indicator also shows support breaking down. That makes the current bounce less convincing until $768 and $770 are reclaimed. The immediate intraday range is $764.72 to $770. GEX Map Monday’s 0DTE GEX map showed negative gamma with puts representing 69.4% of the positioning. Important upside levels: $768 first resistance $769 call level $770 high-volatility level $772 major call level $774 secondary call level $775 upper put level Important downside levels: $766 first put level $765 stronger put level $760 largest downside put wall The negative gamma environment matters. When dealers are positioned in negative gamma, they may hedge in the same direction as the market move. That can make breakouts and breakdowns travel faster. Below $768, SPY was trading inside the negative gamma area. A break below $765 could therefore accelerate toward $760. This map was based on the August 31 0DTE expiration. Those contracts have expired, so Tuesday’s live GEX map must be checked before treating these levels as current dealer positioning. Call Setup For calls, I first want SPY to break $768 and hold it on a retest. Initial upside targets: $769 $770 $772 The stronger call setup begins above $770. If SPY breaks $770 and successfully retests it, the next targets are: $772 $774 $775.30 $775.93 $779.37 I would not chase calls directly into $770. That is the high-volatility level and could reject price without confirmation. Put Setup Puts become interesting if SPY rejects $768 to $770 and then loses $766. Downside targets: $765 $764.72 $763.25 $760 The cleaner breakdown comes below $764.72. I would wait for that level to break and fail on the retest before expecting a larger move toward $760. If $760 breaks, the daily chart opens toward approximately $755. Economic Data Risk Tuesday includes manufacturing and labor-market data. A strong reaction around the morning releases could override the early technical setup. I would avoid entering immediately before the data and wait for SPY to establish direction afterward. My Plan Above $770 with a successful retest, I am looking for calls toward $772 and $775. Below $766 with a failed reclaim, I am looking for puts toward $764.72 and $760. Between $766 and $770, I will wait. That area contains several nearby GEX levels and can produce false breakouts. The larger trend remains bullish, but the short-term setup favors caution. SPY needs to reclaim $770 before buyers take back control. Below $765, negative gamma could turn an ordinary pullback into a faster move toward $760.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Opening: GLD Sept 18th 2 x 363/368-425/435 Iron Condor... for a 2.63 credit. Comments: Non-closely correlated asset to the broad market. With only 39 DTE left in the Sept monthly, probably my last trade in that expiry before I start looking at October when its DTE dwindles down to <56 DTE. Unlike SPY, GLD's skew is to the call side, with similarly delta'd puts being closer to at-the-money than calls, so I'm going double the contracts on the put side at half the delta of the calls and half the width of the call side wing. This makes for a more symmetrical setup relative to current price than were I to just sell equally delta'd short option strikes on both sides. Metrics: Max Profit: 2.63 ($263) Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 7.37 ($737) ROC at Max: 35.7% ROC at 50% Max: 17.8% Will generally look at taking profit at 50% max.
AMEX:GLD
by NaughtyPines