Long SPGIGood morning traders,
SPGI emerged bullish after closing above 200MA on daily timeframe. Below it would invalidate the scenario.
However the fundamentals look strong, the biggest reason to own SPGI remains S&P Global Ratings.
The business benefits from an extraordinary moat:
Regulatory recognition.
Reputation built over decades.
Deep relationships with issuers and investors.
Very high barriers to entry.
Global network effects.
Extremely attractive incremental margins.
In 2025, Ratings generated approximately $4.7 billion in revenue and $3.0 billion in segment operating profit, implying an exceptional operating margin.
The bullish scenario is that the market is still underestimating the duration of the global debt issuance cycle.
Potential drivers include:
Continued refinancing of existing corporate debt.
Growth in private credit.
Infrastructure financing.
Sovereign borrowing.
Structured finance.
Emerging-market capital formation.
AI and data-center infrastructure financing.
A world with structurally higher debt levels can actually be very attractive for SPGI: every new bond, refinancing, securitization or structured product potentially expands the addressable ratings opportunity.
However the growth opportunity could be precisely in uncharted territory > Private credit
One of the most interesting bullish arguments is that SPGI does not need traditional public bond markets alone to grow.
Private credit has become a major source of corporate financing, and institutional investors increasingly require:
Independent risk assessment.
Data.
Benchmarking.
Portfolio analytics.
Transparency.
Valuation infrastructure.
If private markets continue institutionalizing, SPGI can increasingly become part of the infrastructure layer of private capital markets.
This is important because the company is not simply selling information. It is positioning itself closer to the workflow where financial decisions are made.
This position is part of a diversified portfolio and my track record is public.
Follow the rules and you will never blow up any account
1. Never add risk to a losing position
Do not average down or martingale. Adding more capital to a trade that is already in the red only increases your exposure to a failing setup. If the market proves your original thesis wrong, accept the small loss and move on rather than digging a deeper hole.
2. Don't be the first one in or the last one out
Avoid trying to catch the exact top or bottom. Trying to predict the perfect reversal point is highly risky. It is far more profitable to wait for price confirmation before entering, and to take your profits before the trend completely exhausts itself.
3. Think like a fundamentalist, trade like a technician
Use macro context for direction, but the chart for execution. Economic news and data tell you why the market is moving and where general sentiment lies. However, structural technical analysis (price action, key levels) must dictate when to act—giving you your exact entry, stop-loss, and take-profit coordinates.
4. Keep your analysis simple
Avoid analysis paralysis. Overcomplicating your charts with dozens of conflicting technical indicators only breeds hesitation and confusion. Clean, minimalist charts that focus on basic market structure, liquidity zones, and clear candle breaks are much easier to execute consistently under pressure.
5. Position size
Start small and increase if trend confirms.
6. Pay attention to the close, not the noise
Let candles print completely before making a decision. Mid-candle price movements are filled with volatile fakeouts and algorithmic noise designed to trigger retail FOMO (fear of missing out). To maintain an edge, make your analytical judgments based on closed higher-timeframe candles (like the daily close).
Long
