SPX: S&P 500 Futures Hug the Flatline as Warsh Prepares for Jackson Hole Speech

Nvidia and Salesforce delivered a $500 billion technology party Thursday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh now gets to inspect the bill.

🤖 AI rally reaches Wall Street

• S&P 500 futures hovered near flat Friday, while Nasdaq contracts slipped around 0.1% and Dow futures edged higher.
• Traders are holding position before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address at 10:00 a.m. ET — today’s scheduled volatility appointment.
• The S&P 500 gained 0.7% Thursday to 7,730.99, nearing its record high. The Nasdaq surged 1.6% to 26,541.35, while the Dow added 0.2% to 53,569.44. Technology stocks piggybacked off Nvidia’s stellar, majestic, fantastic earnings report.
• Nvidia rocketed 8.7% after beating estimates and forecasting 70% revenue growth next fiscal year.
• Salesforce soared 22.6% as Agentforce growth challenged fears that AI will destroy traditional software. One sells the machinery; the other would quite like AI to renew its subscription.

📊 Big Tech carries the weight

• Technology was the S&P 500’s standout sector, surging 3.4%. Nvidia alone added roughly $456 billion in market value, nearly matching the entire index’s $482 billion increase. Salesforce contributed another $37 billion.
• Only 171 S&P 500 constituents actually advanced, while the equal-weighted version of the index fell 0.2%. The headline benchmark rose because its largest stocks carry greater influence, not because investors enthusiastically purchased everything with a ticker.
• Asia offered a cautious handover. Taiwan climbed around 1.2% and Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.5%, but South Korea’s Kospi and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined. The broader Asia-Pacific index added just 0.1%.

🏦 Warsh gets the final word

• Warsh speaks after July inflation (headline PCE) accelerated to 3.7%, above the 3.6% expected. Markets price roughly a 35% chance of a September rate increase and around 75% by December.
• A hawkish message could lift Treasury yields and quickly challenge Thursday’s expensive technology winners.
• The ten-year Treasury yield held near 4.67%, while the dollar index traded around 99.10 near a one-week high.
• Gold fell 0.5% toward $4,575 and Bitcoin held near $80,000. All three are waiting to hear whether rates stay higher — or fiscal anxiety outweighs monetary discipline.
• Brent crude hovered near $90 but remained headed for a weekly decline exceeding 5% as Iran and Oman discussed restoring Strait of Hormuz traffic. Yet again.